NBA Draft Lottery 2022: Which team has best odds to win No. 1 pick?

With the 2021-22 NBA regular season now over, most of the 10 teams that did not qualify for postseason play will now shift their focus to the upcoming NBA Draft process.

The first part of the draft process is the 2022 NBA Draft Lottery, which is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, May 17. 

This year marks the fourth draft lottery in which each of the league’s bottom three teams has a 14.0 percent chance of winning the top pick in the draft. From there, odds are staggered in order from worst to best record among the other non-playoff teams.

Who has the best chance at winning this year’s top pick?

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2022 NBA Draft Lottery Odds 

Here are the odds for the 2022 NBA Draft lottery.

The Top 4 column represents a team’s chances of earning one of the top four picks in the NBA Draft, while the No. 1 Pick column represents a team’s chances of winning the top pick in the 2022 NBA Draft.

(Current through April 10 games) 

Team Record Top 4 No. 1 Pick
Rockets 20-62 52.1% 14.0%
Magic 22-60 52.1% 14.0%
Pistons 23-59 52.1% 14.0%
Thunder 24-58 48.1% 12.5%
Pacers 25-57 42.1% 10.5%
Trail Blazers 27-55 37.2% 9.0%
Kings 30-52 32.0% 7.5%
Lakers → Pelicans 33-49 26.3% 6.0%
Spurs* 34-48 20.3% 4.5%
Wizards 35-47 11.7% 3.0%
Pelicans* → Trail Blazers 36-46 11.7% 2.0%
Knicks 37-45 7.1% 1.5%
Hawks* 43-39 4.8% 1.0%
Hornets* 43-39 2.4% 0.5%
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*Indicates teams in the Play-In Tournament. Should a Play-In Tournament team qualify for the NBA Playoffs, it would select outside of the lottery.

The Pelicans acquired the Lakers’ pick in the 2019 trade that sent Anthony Davis to Los Angeles.

The Trail Blazers acquired the Pelicans’ pick in the February trade that sent C.J. McCollum to New Orleans.

History of No. 1 overall picks in NBA Draft

Here are the last 10 teams to select first overall in the NBA Draft.

Prior to 2019, the team with the league’s worst record had a 25.0 percent probability of winning the draft lottery. In 2014, the Cavaliers became one of the least likely lottery winners in NBA history, earning the No. 1 pick despite having a 1.7 percent chance of winning.

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Year Team No. 1 Pick Probability Selection
2021 Pistons 14.0% Cade Cunningham
2020 Timberwolves 14.0% Anthony Edwards
2019 Pelicans 6.0% Zion Williamson
2018 Suns 25.0% Deandre Ayton
2017 76ers (via Celtics) 25.0% Markelle Fultz
2016 76ers 25.0% Ben Simmons
2015 Timberwolves 25.0% Karl-Anthony Towns
2014 Cavaliers 1.7% Andrew Wiggins
2013 Cavaliers 15.6% Anthony Bennett
2012 Hornets 13.7% Anthony Davis