Expert NFL Survivor Pool Advice, Tips, Picks Week 4

After yet another week with very few eliminations in NFL survivor pools, Week 4 features the biggest favorite of the year so far as the most popular survivor pool pick, but there are several other viable options. We’ll break down the pros and cons of the five most popular picks since you’re probably considering choosing at least one of these teams. However, it’s important to remember that the best pick for your eliminator pool is determined by pick popularity, pool size, future value, and more factors that could alter your strategy.

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Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Tips, strategy for picks

Note: “Pick Popularity” numbers below refer to the estimated percentage of survivor pool entries nationwide that have already picked the team in question. Those numbers, as well as a team’s odds to win, can shift over the course of the week, so make sure to check our NFL survivor picks product for all the latest data.

BIG NEWS: Before we get to the picks, we’re happy to announce that we just published our first-ever e-book, Survivor Pool Strategy: What It Takes To Win. It explains all the key elements of survivor pool strategy and includes case studies on specific historical weeks and pool-winning entries. It’s free right now, so download your copy here.

Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans

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Pick Popularity: 37% (most popular pick)
Point Spread: -16.0

The Bills have the best win odds this week and also the highest expected value. Usually, high pick popularity noticeably reduces expected value, but the Bills have much greater win odds than any other team this week, which is a big plus. However, they also are one of the most valuable teams to save for the future, as we project they will have six additional weeks with win odds of 75 percent or higher. 

If a large chunk of your pool uses the Bills now, they can’t be heavily used in the future, increasing their value in those future weeks. Whether it makes sense to save them or use them in this spot depends largely on how many other entries you have to beat (your current pool size) and how deep into the season you will need to go in order to win. Early-week survival rates have been high through Week 3, so your survivor pool may last longer than usual this year.

MORE TEAMRANKINGS: Week 4 Pick ’em pool advice

Tennessee Titans at New York Jets

Pick Popularity: 25%
Point Spread: -7.5

The Titans, like the other options listed here besides Buffalo, are currently favored by just over a touchdown. That puts them in the same safety tier as the rest of the Buffalo alternatives. 

With higher popularity, though, Tennessees’s value is reduced. Buffalo, the most popular pick, has win odds around 90 percent, reducing the likelihood of benefiting from a Bills upset. The other non-Bills options also have similar win odds. Unless the odds for all the top picks change, Tennessee will have the lowest expected value of the five most popular picks this week.

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Tennessee also has moderate future value — similar to New Orleans, less than Buffalo and Kansas City, and more than Cincinnati.

Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick Popularity: 15%
Point Spread: -7.5

The Bengals have one big factor going for them this week: Future value, or lack thereof. If you are going to use Cincinnati, now is the time to use them, as they have win odds over 75 percent for likely the only time this year. 

The immediate expected value is moderate. The benefit of using Cincinnati is that you save better teams for future weeks, which could be important in a larger pool.

BIG NEWS: Before we get to the picks, we’re happy to announce that we just published our first-ever e-book, Survivor Pool Strategy: What It Takes To Win. It explains all the key elements of survivor pool strategy and includes case studies on specific historical weeks and pool-winning entries. It’s free right now, so download your copy here.

New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants

Pick Popularity: 11%
Point Spread: -7.5

The Saints provide a solid combination of win odds and pick popularity and are a decent alternative to using Buffalo. If you don’t want to go with a team like Cincinnati, New Orleans gives you identical win odds to Tennessee but at less than half the pick popularity.

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Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles

Pick Popularity: 4%
Point Spread: -7.5

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Kansas City has taken a bit of the hit early in the season, starting 1-2. For this week, though, that may provide value in terms of fading the recency bias and negative public sentiment. You are giving up some future value if you use the Chiefs, but this is a reasonable contrarian spot. You can both save Buffalo and take one of the teams with the next-best win odds, yet with the lowest pick popularity of the best non-Buffalo options.

Get our Week 4 survivor pick for your pool!

Every possible NFL Week 4 survivor pick has an expected value in the current week as well as a future value associated with it. Those values can vary significantly based on the characteristics of your pool, such as its size and its rules. It takes a lot of data and math to figure out which pick (or combination of picks, if you’re playing multiple entries) gives you the biggest edge to win your pool, which is why we spent years building our NFL Survivor Picks product.

Our product asks you a few questions about your survivor pool, then provides customized pick advice using the latest matchup data, betting market odds, and public picking trends. It tracks the picks you’ve already made and even recommends how to split up your picks if you’re playing multiple entries. There’s nothing else like it, and it’s why our subscribers have reported nearly $3 million in survivor pool winnings since 2017.

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We invite you to try it out, and good luck in your survivor pools this week!